I am an investment analyst in Nairobi Kenya working on a project of analysing Ghana and the investment opportunities that it affords in terms of Equities, Fixed Income, Real Estate and Private Equity. Truth is there is not much to go on and the investors im advising need concrete proof of return. What is the average rate of return for investing in these asset classes there? Why hasn't the country's derivatives market been developed yet you clearly have some skilled people albeit few compared to a country like Kenya? Do you know of any websites that i may be able to use to access this information which i really need? I would very much appreciate the assistance from anyone who visits this website. Coming by good data is really hard and i would know being a data miner and all. Nevertheless i think your country is beautiful and amazing and one of the exemplary states of West Africa
AmandaJan 12, 2016 15:41 GMT
Great site, good analysis. I find the number of listed companies rather low. I can see you have just 38 here is that all the companies listed on the Exchange? Are they all stocks or some are bond?
Michael KwayisiJan 13, 2016 08:01 GMT
There are indeed 38 listed symbols on the exchange. But there are others (HORDS, IIL, MMH, etc.) that are not listed on the main board but the Alternative Market. I decided not to track those symbols in the mix of the major ones. Regarding whether the symbols are all stocks, no, there is one ETF, namely, NewGold (GLD), but no bonds.
Kofi KJun 20, 2016 15:12 GMT
Kwasi I don't agree with your advise of not buying(shares on the gse) I think there are a whole lot of bargains on the market and for Rule#1 investors there is no better time to buy stocks than now when they are cheap...at least for the medium to long term.
Michael KwayisiJun 20, 2016 21:32 GMT
My prediction is that stocks will remain cheap until the very later part of the year at which point you may then buy. By doing short-term, high-yielding investments now, you will end up with more capital when the equity market begins to pick up.
Kofi KJun 21, 2016 00:20 GMT
Your point is much clearer now....thanks.
LorraineAug 18, 2016 09:16 GMT
Many thanks for the great information on your website. I am currently an EMBA student at Uni of oxford and trying to analyse the growth in the Ghanaian stock exchange over last 5 years to compare it against TFP numbers to determine if there is a bubble.
For this I believe I need to leverage the Gordon Growth formula. In order to apply this I am trying to determine the risk premium and riskless rate for Ghana. This data as Im sure you are aware is difficult to come across, not available on Bloomberg.
Any chance you may know where I can find this? Alternatively would you agree with the approach to average out government bonds issued since 2010 as the riskless rate and then less that from total equity returns from the stock market to get risk premium? If so, do you know where I can find the total returns from the stock market for each year since 2010 as currently don't have access to Bloomberg.
If you were addressing such a question to compare the growth in the stock market as a compound average against the TFP for each year in the 5 years? or would you compare the compound average of both?
Michael KwayisiAug 18, 2016 14:20 GMT
On using the Gordon growth model to detect a market bubble, I have a bit of a reservation regarding its assumption of a steady growth rate less than the cost of equity which may incorrectly make you flag certain stocks as being in a bubble, e.g., Apple on its return to profitability. However, since these situations are quite rare (and the Ghanaian market is yet to see any), I think it's safe to rely on that assumption.
Certainly, I don't think there's a better way of measuring risk premiums than to compare with T-bills returns, preferably, the 91-day. You may download the GSE annual returns since 1990 (in Excel format) from here: annualreportsghana.com/...
TFP estimates are more accurately measured when they are based on long time series as they substantially depend on long-term, reliable information. Moreover, considering the fact that investments in infrastructure are not immediately realized, short-term results may look poor and misleading. So, yes, go for the longer period.
Lorraine WrightAug 18, 2016 14:31 GMT
This is excellent feedback. I now have RP and RF rates which i have put in the gordon growth formula but the question is for an assessment against TFP numbers which i have for every year for the last 5 years. Is it best to compare an average growth figure from gordon growth against an average tfp number for the 5 years or would you do this YoY?
Thanks so much!
Ken OdameAug 28, 2016 15:45 GMT
Your site is get informative and user-friendly. How different is the GSE from the GAX? Could you kindly consider publishing daily market data for companies listed on the Ghana Alternative Market (i.e. MBA, MMH, HORDS, IIL) because a lot's happening there too...
Michael KwayisiAug 28, 2016 17:09 GMT
Actually, there's not much difference between the two, save for the smaller market size of GAX compared with GSE. Thanks for the suggestion; I'll start publishing GAX data soon. Can't really say when, but latest by close of the year.
DanielNov 4, 2016 10:29 GMT
Hello Michael, I'm a new member on this page and I want to invest on the Ghana Stock Exchange market, can you kindly assists me on how to enter the security market and how to buy shares and actually how the stock market operates?
lankweiNov 4, 2016 12:43 GMT
Investing on any stock market requires understanding of the regulations of that particular Stock Market. There is no guarantee of making it big on the market.
One thing you must NOT do is to hand over your money to a broker and give a free hand on how your account is managed. Brokers make money by trading i.e. buying and selling on behalf of the client YOU must give the ok to every transaction.
You should research every company yourself. Financial reports, shareholdings press releases, etc. Unfortunately. there regulation dealing with insider trading, as far as I am aware, on the GSE!
Over the years I have been quite enthusiastic over the GSE and have indeed done extremely well.
Sometimes your broker my contact you about a private placement. Again it is up to the potential Investor to read the prospectus and if possible go to the meeting and ask questions an necessary. An investor can do quite well in such situations
Nana ArhinJul 24, 2015 11:15 GMT
how far for ADB shares?
AngloGold Ashanti Limited shares is the best in the market now.
Michael KwayisiAug 24, 2015 20:31 GMT
ADB's initial public offering had to be suspended when a group called The Union of Commerce, Industry and Finance Workers (UNICOF) sent them to court for not following due process in preparing their prospectus to list on the Exchange. UNICOF, however, has since withdrawn the suit (last week Wednesday) so we'll hopefully see ADB launch soon.
TenaceDec 29, 2015 06:23 GMT
Good work here. I find your site even more informative than the GSE site. Want to inquire if it's possible to get the daily (at close) gse-ci indices for years 2008 & 2012 in a csv file. Will appreciate it.
TenaceDec 30, 2015 05:18 GMT
Thanks Mike (if I may call you that). Yeah I read it was rebased from all share index to composite index. Thanks though. By the way, do you think the GSE is an efficient market? i.e. do prices respond to available and relevant market information? I have done a preliminary analysis of security prices during historic events e.g. election winner declarations, supreme court rulings etc. and to my surprise the prices do not change significantly. It's just the prelim analysis though. Will probe further. But I find it weird that most of the prices remain unchanged over long periods; even when trading volume activities are recorded on said event dates. Your thoughts?
Michael KwayisiDec 30, 2015 09:22 GMT
I think those who actually influence the market are institutional investors who buy in large volumes, and they tend to decide between the money and capital markets, instead of shares. So if the stock market is generally good, they invest - almost arbitrarily; if not, they take their money elsewhere: t-bills, etc. There are simply not enough investors (especially individuals) who study market information to discover underpriced shares. So, in my opinion, no, the GSE is not an efficient market.
Having said that, I think the problem with the GSE goes beyond just its efficiency: liquidity, profitability, listed companies, corporate governance, policies and regulations, etc. are all issues that need some work.
Michael KwayisiDec 29, 2015 23:53 GMT
I've only collected data for the GSE-CI since December 31, 2010 (when the index was rebased) so I don't have the data preceding the said date. For the 2012 data, however, you may download it from the following link: cdn.kwayisi.org/...
KwameDec 30, 2015 11:13 GMT
You are doing a great job; well done.
I would like to know what you think about buying UNIL vrs SIC vrs UTB shares now.